Gen Z Behind the Wheel: How Many Drive Now, How They Drive, and What’s Coming Next

If you care about the future of driving culture—and I obviously do—the key question is simple: How many young people are actually driving, how are they driving, and are we losing drivers generation over generation?

How many Gen Z drivers are there—right now?

A clean way to count “Gen Z drivers” is to look at licensing and actual driving among ages roughly 16–28 (Gen Z in 2025). Three big facts anchor the picture:

1. Licensing among late-teens is way down vs. the past. In 2023, only ~25% of 16-year-olds and ~60% of 18-year-olds had a license—massively below the ’80s/’90s norms (think ~46% of 16-year-olds and ~80% of 18-year-olds back then). That’s not Internet rumor; those rates are consistent across contemporary summaries and the long-running UMTRI research line that first documented the drop. Next Gen Personal Finance+1
2. Most people who are of driving age still drive at least occasionally. In 2023, 95.3% of U.S. residents 16+ reported driving at least sometimes (that’s not all on Day One at 16, but it shows the majority still end up in the driver pool). Average day: ~29 miles in 2023. AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety+1
3. The official counts confirm a smaller youth slice of the licensed pool. FHWA’s age-by-age driver tables (DL-220/DL-20) show the youth share (under 25) shrinking over time as teens delay licensure. In plain English: the pie of licensed drivers is aging, and Gen Z takes a smaller slice than Millennials did at the same ages. Federal Highway Administration+1

Put those together and you get this: Gen Z has fewer licensed teens and more late adopters. Many still arrive in the driver pool in their 20s—but later, and in lower proportions than previous cohorts.

How Gen Z actually drives

• Later start, fewer keys at 16–18. The entry ramp moved: fewer permits at 16–17, more first licenses at 18–22. Reasons? Cost (insurance, gas, cars), digital social life, and “mobility on demand.” Bankrate
• Miles per driver are muted vs. prime-age adults. National Household Travel Survey data show 36–65 year-olds log the most daily miles; younger groups trail them. Translation: Gen Z contributes fewer total person-miles of driving per head than the big commuting cohorts. National Household Travel Survey
• More ride-hailing in the mix. Surveys consistently show Gen Z uses ride-hailing more frequently than older cohorts (weekly use is notably higher), which cannibalizes some early-life car ownership and reinforces delayed licensure. Morningstar
• Nondrivers exist—but they’re a minority. About 1 in 10 U.S. adults say they rarely or never drive; that’s not all Gen Z, but it includes a share of them—again, consistent with “delayed or optional” driving scripts. Pew Research Center

The next cohort (Gen Alpha): how many drivers will we lose?

Projecting the next generation means blending demographics (how many 16–29-year-olds we’ll have) with behavior (what share will get licensed, and when).

• Demographics first: Official projections show a graying U.S. with slower growth; youth cohorts do not swell dramatically. (Census 2023 projections and CBO’s 2025 outlook both show a modestly growing, older population through the 2030s–’40s.) That means fewer new potential drivers per year than in the 1990s/2000s, and more of the total driver pie taken by older adults. Census.gov+1
• Behavior next: If Gen Z’s delayed licensure rates persist into Gen Alpha, we should expect fewer licensed 16–18-year-olds and later first licensure. The long-run UMTRI trend of lower teen licensing, plus contemporary 16/18-year-old licensing rates, suggests no snap-back to 1980s behavior without big policy or cost changes. PubMed

A practical forecast (what I’d brief to a museum board or an OEM):

• By the early 2030s (when older Gen Alpha hits 16–18), if we hold today’s teen licensure rates roughly constant and apply them to Census-projected youth counts, the U.S. will likely see hundreds of thousands fewer licensed teen drivers in any given year than a “Millennial-era” baseline—and millions fewer licensed 16–24-year-olds in the active driver pool than we would have had under 1990s-style behavior. (Directionally sound; the precise totals depend on the exact youth population and the licensure rate you assume.) Census.gov
• Net “driver loss”: Think of it as a shift, not a disappearance. Many of those “lost” teen drivers become drivers at 20–24. But even after that catch-up, the share that never licenses, or licenses very late, is larger than before, so the total number of younger active drivers at any time is lower than it used to be—which affects entry-level car sales, motorsport feeder systems, and the “car-as-culture” pipeline. Federal Highway Administration

Why it matters for car culture

If fewer kids are getting keys at 16–18, you lose formative years when driving bonds are forged: weekend wrenching, first canyon runs, and yes, the sacred ritual of learning stick. That’s not just nostalgia; it’s market formation. The further we push first licensure into the 20s—and the more miles farmed out to Uber—the thinner the pipeline for enthusiasts, track-day novices, and future collectors. Morningstar

What we can do (action items, not hand-wringing)

1. Lower the friction at the on-ramp. Teen insurance is brutal; partner with carriers for graduated-licensing discounts + supervised training bundles. (AAA’s data show the macro demand is there; we’re just not onboarding early.) AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety
2. Make “driving” social again. Gen Z and Alpha show up for events. Target low-cost, high-touch formats: parking-lot autocross, sim-to-seat nights, ride-alongs in safe instructor cars, and manual-only clinics.
3. Meet them where they already are—on demand. If ride-hailing is the default, hack it: “Uber to the track, drive here” packages, with helmets and instructors provided. Morningstar
4. Leverage schools. Tie driver ed to STEM & EV/Hybrid tech, letting kids tear down a brake caliper in the morning and talk energy use and safety in the afternoon (NHTS and AAA make the safety/usage case easy). National Household Travel Survey+1

Now: Gen Z still drives, but fewer do it at 16–18, and they log fewer miles than prime-age adults; ride-hailing fills gaps. National Household Travel Survey+1

• Next: With an aging national age-mix and persistently delayed licensure, Gen Alpha will enter with fewer teen drivers than the Millennial era—and some never license at all. Expect fewer young drivers in the pool at any given time, even though many “catch up” in their 20s. Census.gov+1
• How many are we “losing”? Against 1990s behavior, millions fewer licensed 16–24-year-olds are in the system today, and hundreds of thousands fewer teens per year will likely enter in the early 2030s if current rates persist. It’s a structural headwind for car culture—but not a death sentence if we build better on-ramps. Federal Highway Administration

If we want the next generation to love driving, we can’t wait for them to wander into a DMV at 23. We’ve got to bring the keys to them—safely, intelligently, and with enough magic to remind them that a well-sorted car on the right road is still one of life’s great, meaningful experiences.Thinking